How will the recent NVIDIA AI capex rating update impact semiconductor investors?

[Brayan]

I’ve been following the news regarding the latest nvidia ai capex rating and the positive outlook recently issued by major rating agencies like S&P Global. With the "AA-" rating and a shift from stable to positive, it seems like the massive capital expenditure from hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google is still driving incredible demand for Blackwell and Rubin chips. However, I’m curious about the long-term sustainability. If the capex from these tech giants starts to slow down or if they successfully pivot to their own custom silicon, how quickly could that rating be impacted? I’m looking for an analysis from anyone who tracks these financial metrics do you think the current "positive" outlook is fully baked into the stock price, or is there still significant room for growth as AI infrastructure spending approaches the $1 trillion mark?

 

[Lisa]

The rating upgrade is basically a stamp of approval on their cash flow. S&P expects them to hit over $90B in free cash flow this year. That kind of liquidity makes them bulletproof, even if Microsoft decides to build a few more of its own chips.

 

[AngelinaFi]

If you think this is "fully baked in," you aren't looking at the forward P/E. It’s actually compressed recently because earnings are growing faster than the price. The "AA" positive outlook is just the bond market finally catching up to what equity traders knew a year ago.

 

[ArthurMex]

The real threat isn't just custom silicon; it’s the ROI timeline. If Google and Meta can't show their shareholders a clear profit from that $600B+ 2026 capex, the "positive" rating will turn "stable" or "negative" faster than you can say "Blackwell."

 

[Ghausmakin]

People always talk about "custom chips" like they're a total NVIDIA killer. But look at the CUDA ecosystem. Software lock-in is the real moat. Even if a TPU is 10% faster for one specific task, you can’t just port a whole enterprise stack overnight.

 

[Evelinawright]

NVIDIA is essentially becoming a sovereign-level infrastructure provider. When you see deals with national governments for "Sovereign AI" supercomputers, that’s a revenue stream that doesn't depend on whether Google has a good quarter.

 

[HeatherMun]

Expect more volatility in the broader semi-sector. When NVIDIA gets upgraded, it sucks the air out of the room for smaller players. Investors are moving "up in quality," which is why you see NVIDIA's price-to-sales normalizing while competitors struggle to keep up.

 

[Emmawoods]

The S&P shift to "positive" means an upgrade to AA is likely within 12-18 months. That would put them in the same credit tier as the most stable companies on earth. For a tech company, that's almost unheard of. It changes the risk profile for institutional funds.

 

[megamind]

Don't ignore the Rubin roadmap. If Rubin delivers the promised 10x reduction in inference costs, it effectively kills the argument that AI is too expensive to scale. That’s what the rating agencies are betting on.

 

[Lugwig]

Sustainability is the million-dollar question. If capex hits a wall in 2027, the rating won't drop immediately because their balance sheet is so clean (net cash position is projected to hit $100B+). They can survive a multi-year downturn easily.

 

[TaylorTravels]

Honestly, the "AA" is just noise for day traders, but for long-term holders, it’s a signal that the "bubble" talk is losing its grip on the math. When the math says $270B revenue by 2027, a positive outlook is just common sense.